In early April a British subcontractor for the Malaysian oil company Petronas was killed during an ambush in Ethiopia's restive Somali region (BBC). Know as the Ogaden, this arid terrain has been the site of long-standing conflict between Somali separatist rebels and government troops, as well as more recent prospecting for oil and natural gas by foreign firms. While the Ethiopian government has steadfastly asserted that the assailants were "mere bandits" and that the killing "was not politically motivated", foreign aid officials in the region told Reuters that the attack did not seem to be the work of thieves. "They didn't seek to steal anything," one aid official said, "they simply opened fire with AK-47s and riddled the car" (Reuters ; BBC). The main rebel group in the region, the Ogaden National Liberation Front (ONLF), has blamed the attack on government-back militias (VOA). Although condemning this particular attack, the ONLF has threatened, kidnapped and killed foreign oil workers before (most notably in April 2007 when ONLF commandos stormed a heavily guarded Sinopec facility, killing nine Chinese workers and taking seven hostage), angered by Addis Ababa's attempts to milk their homeland of its natural resources (Reuters). While sorting out the true perpetrators will undoubtedly prove difficult, this event has demonstrated once again that foreign corporations operate in the Ogaden at great peril.

Eleven oil companies are currently prospecting for oil and natural gas in the Ogaden including Malaysia's Petronas, Canada's Africa Oil and Britain's Tullow The Ethiopian government has expressed its desire to offer 14 more licenses over the next three years.(Cakaara News; Addis Fortune). If the killing of a Petronas geologist is not enough to proove that the Ogaden environment is about to heat up for foreign multinationals, the ONLF's April 25 announcement of a new military offensive should certainly serve as proof enough. In an interview with Mogadishu's Shabelle Radio, the ONLF's information secretary warned foreign companies and aid agencies to stay away from Ethiopian troops, with whom the ONLF seek to engage (Shabelle Radio). However, in the wake of past attacks by the ONLF and other rebel groups, foreign company's facilities are heavily guarded by the Ethiopian military, making such requests impossible (Janes Defense Review). The ONLF, in a past warning issued in September 2009 recognized this Catch-22, and offered that the solution would be for oil companies to leave the Ogaden:
"the Ogaden is a war zone, so they should not conduct any business activity in it until there is a political solution to the conflict. The ONLF will not be responsible for any collateral damages that occur from its engagements with the Ethiopian army or security apparatuses (Ogaden National Liberation Front Statement September 15, 2009)."

The Ethiopian government has played down the ONLF's ability to mount serious attacks since an Ethiopian military crackdown which followed the ONLF's 2007 attack on a Sinopec facility. Since the operation, which lasted until the end of 2008, the government has characterized the rebel movement as a splintered remnant of its former self. Addis Ababa has brushed away grandiose communiqués from the ONLF describing successful campaigns in March and November of 2009 in which hundreds of Ethiopian soldiers were killed and several towns captured; instead the government has claimed only light skirmishes involving friendly militias and the ONLF in which most of the casualties lay on the rebel side (Jamestown Foundation ; BBC).

However according to an article in the April edition of Jane's Defense in Review the ONLF is gaining strength. Human Rights Watch descrided the Ethiopian military's campaign 2007-2008 campaign as one of collective punishment against the Ogadeni population, inlcuding the manipulation of food aid, and the rape torture and execution of civilians. These harsh tactics have increased the populace's support for the ONLF. A severe drought exacerbated the desperation of many Ogadenis shrinking the camel herds upon whihc they depend for survival. However this has freed up more young men for military service, as they no longer neeed to spend the dry season from December to March herding their families camels in search of water. According to an Ethiopian officer attached to a garrison in the Ogaden, a steady increase in the sophistication of ONLF attacks culminated in the November 2009 offensive in which the ONLF demonstrated its ability to move freely through-out the Ogaden and to target multiple fronts in a coordinated fashion. Indeed, other Ethiopian army informants told Jane's that the army's control is limited to large towns and roads during the daytime (Janes Defense Review April 2010).

In light of such information foreign oil companies operating in the Ogaden must take the ONLF's warning of an upcoming offensive as a serious threat. And even if the offensive does not amount to much, the killing of the Petronas subcontractor should give the oil companies pause - the potential for more seemingly random acts of violence in a region awash with weapons and mired in poverty seems high.

Photo: NY Times
Map: Somaliland Times