Unfortunately many Ivorians will recognize Tuesday’s proceedings, and so should Gbagbo. During the last Presidential elections in October 2000, head of state General Robert Guei dissolved the electoral commission in order to prevent the release of results which showed that his opponent, Laurent Gbagbo, was in the lead. Gbagbo called on his well organized supporters to take to the streets, and they pushed Guei into exile.

It seems that Gagbo may have learned from the 2000 election and Gen. Guei’s ham-fisted tactics. Instead of resorting to such plainly undemocratic means, Gbagbo clearly has a more legalistic plan. Gbagbo supporters have been alleging fraud since the vote, and Gbagbo spokesman Pascal Affi N’Guessan on Wednesday called for the annulment of the vote in the several northern regions (france 24) because of massive fraud that had relegated the election to a “masquarade”. Damana Adia Pickass later explained that a consensus within the CEI could not be reached over the validity of the results in the north, and without a consensus, no results can be made public or finalized (Jeune Afrique). According to the electoral code if the CEI does not meet the Wednesday night deadline to announce the results, that job is handed over to the Constitutional Council, an institution close to the Gbagbo. The Council is headed by Paul Yao N'dre, a close confidant of Gbagbo's from the early days of their Front Populaire Ivorienne party (Jeune Afrique, ICG). By tying up the CEI Gbagbo is attempting to move the decision from the hands of a more independent body (the CEI) to one loyal to him.

International observers have undercut the basis for Gbagbo’s argument, stating that no large-scale electoral irregularities were observed and that, according to the UN’s Chief Observer “second tour was generally carried out in a democratic fashion” (New York Times, Jeune Afrique). As a result the international community has called on Gbagbo to allow the CEI to announce the provisional results immediately, echoing more forceful calls from Ouattara’s camp (rfi, Jeune Afrique)

In 2000, when Gen. Guei refused to budge, Gbagbo broke the impasse by putting his supporters in the streets and taking control of Abdijan. Could Ouattara do to Gbagbo what Gbagbo did to Guei? Ouattara has well organized youth supporters, but the youth that pushed Gbagbo to power in 2000 are still largely by his side (despite the economic malaise of Gbagbo’s tenure), organized after 10 years in power into the formidable “patriotic galaxy” of quasi-militia youth movements (ICG) . It is Gbagbo’s control of the streets of Abidjan that will allow him the time to stall the CEI and bring the decision to “his” Constitutional Council.